Signal Track Record
Live signal outcomes measured at 7-day close · last 90 days · 89 live signals
Win Rate
55%
49W · 40L
Avg Move (Hit)
4.0%
correct calls · 7d close
Avg Move (Miss)
5.9%
incorrect calls · 7d close
Exp. Value / Signal
-0.46%
win rate × avg win − loss rate × avg loss
Cumulative Return
sum of 7d returns per signalEach data point adds the 7-day return of a resolved BULLISH/BEARISH signal. Not compounded — shows raw directional accuracy over time.
By Asset Class
where the signals workedWin rate and avg 7-day return broken down by what asset class the signal targeted.
| Class | Signals | W / L | Win Rate | Avg Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gas/LNGNatural gas + LNG carriers | 37 | 24/13 | 65% | +0.13% |
| ShippingContainer carriers + freight | 36 | 16/20 | 44% | -1.04% |
| CrudeOil futures + tanker equities + refiners | 16 | 9/7 | 56% | -0.55% |
Resolved Signals
89 signals| Date | Type | Ticker | Entry | Exit | 7d Return | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-03 | BEARISH | ZIM | $23.71 | $23.97 | -1.1% | ✗ MISS |
| 2026-07-03 | BULLISH | ZIM | $23.71 | $23.97 | +1.1% | ✓ HIT |
| 2026-07-02 | BULLISH | ZIM | $25.57 | $24.14 | -5.6% | ✗ MISS |
| 2026-07-02 | BULLISH | LNG | $245.97 | $261.29 | +6.2% | ✓ HIT |
| 2026-07-02 | BEARISH | ZIM | $25.57 | $24.14 | +5.6% | ✓ HIT |
| 2026-07-02 | BULLISH | FLEX | $136.86 | $139.94 | +2.3% | ✓ HIT |
| 2026-07-02 | BULLISH | FLEX | $136.86 | $139.94 | +2.3% | ✓ HIT |
| 2026-07-01 | BEARISH | NG | $3.22 | $3.21 | +0.2% | ✓ HIT |
| 2026-07-01 | BEARISH | ZIM | $25.23 | $24.60 | +2.5% | ✓ HIT |
| 2026-06-30 | BULLISH | ZIM | $26.00 | $23.92 | -8.0% | ✗ MISS |
| 2026-06-29 | BULLISH | ZIM | $25.91 | $23.71 | -8.5% | ✗ MISS |
| 2026-06-28 | BULLISH | FLEX | $159.56 | $138.65 | -13.1% | ✗ MISS |
| 2026-06-27 | BULLISH | ZIM | $25.91 | $23.71 | -8.5% | ✗ MISS |
| 2026-06-26 | BEARISH | CL | $69.23 | $68.55 | +1.0% | ✓ HIT |
| 2026-06-25 | BULLISH | FLEX | $161.28 | $136.86 | -15.1% | ✗ MISS |
| 2026-06-25 | BEARISH | ZIM | $25.80 | $25.57 | +0.9% | ✓ HIT |
| 2026-05-29 | BULLISH | FLEX | $150.78 | $151.92 | +0.8% | ✓ HIT |
| 2026-05-27 | BEARISH | FLEX | $145.79 | $161.94 | -11.1% | ✗ MISS |
| 2026-05-26 | BEARISH | FLEX | $143.24 | $159.43 | -11.3% | ✗ MISS |
| 2026-05-21 | BULLISH | FLEX | $131.07 | $144.85 | +10.5% | ✓ HIT |
Engine Backtest
SimulatedHistorical ReplaySignals generated by replaying the production signal engine against historical AIS port data (2026-04-09 → 2026-06-20). Outcomes resolve automatically at 7-day close — identical methodology to the live track record above. Results are simulated — not real trades.
Win Rate
54%
21W · 18L
Avg Move (Hit)
4.4%
abs return · correct calls · 7d
Avg Move (Miss)
3.1%
abs return · incorrect calls · 7d
Signals
39
39 resolved · 0 pending
| Date | Port | Type | Ticker | Entry | Exit | 7d Return | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-09 | Houston | BEARISH | CL | $88.20 | $76.05 | +13.8% | ✓ HIT |
| 2026-06-08 | Rotterdam | BEARISH | ZIM | $25.56 | $24.92 | +2.5% | ✓ HIT |
| 2026-06-08 | Los Angeles / Long Beach | BEARISH | ZIM | $25.56 | $24.92 | +2.5% | ✓ HIT |
| 2026-06-07 | Singapore | BULLISH | FLEX | $150.83 | $149.22 | -1.1% | ✗ MISS |
| 2026-06-06 | Sabine Pass | BEARISH | NG | $3.15 | $3.15 | +0.0% | ✗ MISS |
| 2026-06-06 | Rotterdam | BULLISH | ZIM | $25.56 | $24.92 | -2.5% | ✗ MISS |
| 2026-06-06 | Los Angeles / Long Beach | BEARISH | ZIM | $25.56 | $24.92 | +2.5% | ✓ HIT |
| 2026-06-05 | Houston | BEARISH | CL | $90.54 | $84.88 | +6.3% | ✓ HIT |
| 2026-06-04 | Sabine Pass | BULLISH | LNG | $241.07 | $240.14 | -0.4% | ✗ MISS |
| 2026-06-04 | Los Angeles / Long Beach | BULLISH | ZIM | $25.45 | $25.91 | +1.8% | ✓ HIT |
| 2026-06-02 | Houston | BULLISH | FLEX | $159.43 | $147.21 | -7.7% | ✗ MISS |
| 2026-05-26 | Santos | BEARISH | VALE | $16.50 | $16.82 | -1.9% | ✗ MISS |
| 2026-04-19 | Santos | BEARISH | VALE | $17.82 | $17.07 | +4.2% | ✓ HIT |
| 2026-04-19 | Port Hedland | BULLISH | BHP | $79.59 | $79.84 | +0.3% | ✓ HIT |
| 2026-04-16 | Port Hedland | BULLISH | BHP | $79.47 | $79.84 | +0.5% | ✓ HIT |
| 2026-04-14 | Santos | BULLISH | VALE | $17.68 | $17.45 | -1.3% | ✗ MISS |
| 2026-04-14 | Port Hedland | BULLISH | BHP | $79.17 | $77.69 | -1.9% | ✗ MISS |
| 2026-04-12 | Port Hedland | BEARISH | BHP | $78.10 | $79.59 | -1.9% | ✗ MISS |
| 2026-04-11 | Santos | BULLISH | VALE | $17.45 | $17.82 | +2.1% | ✓ HIT |
| 2026-04-09 | Santos | BULLISH | VALE | $16.65 | $17.43 | +4.7% | ✓ HIT |
Methodology
What's scored
BULLISH and BEARISH signals only. NEUTRAL and WATCH signals express uncertainty and are excluded from win-rate calculations.
Primary ticker
First stock in the signal's affected assets list. If no stocks are listed, the first futures contract is used. One ticker per signal.
Entry price
Daily closing price on the signal date, or the next available trading day (up to 4 calendar days later to account for weekends and holidays).
Exit price
Daily closing price exactly 7 calendar days after the signal date, or the next available trading day within 4 calendar days.
Win definition
Directional accuracy only. BULLISH is correct if exit > entry; BEARISH is correct if exit < entry. Return magnitude is tracked separately.
Lookback window
Rolling 90 days. Signals older than 90 days are not included. Signals less than 7 days old are pending and excluded from win rate until resolved.
Live outcomes measured at 7-day close · Past performance does not predict future results · Legal