20d ago
Houston Congestion Relief: Bearish energy
Houston shows Congestion score 14 is 2.4σ below same-hour baseline (avg 46). This typically leads energy markets by 5-10 days, supporting a bearish read on CL (currently $90.17, -4.1% 5d). Note: the asset has already moved in this direction over the past week, so part of the move may be priced in.
Triggered By
Congestion score 14 is 2.4σ below same-hour baseline (avg 46)
Trade Idea
Short CL (currently $90.17, -4.1% 5d) while congestion holds below 14 for 2+ consecutive polls; target a 3-7 days hold as port data typically leads energy by ~5-10 days.
Any prices referenced are as of the signal time (20d ago) — check the live tape before acting.
Entry
Congestion holds below 14 for 2+ consecutive polls
Invalidation
congestionScore reverts toward baseline (46) within 48h, or CL rises above $92.88
Horizon
3-7 days
Affected Assets
CL
—
NG
—
RB
—
USO
—
UNG
—
XLE
—
⚠ Much of the move may already be priced in. An OPEC+ guidance change or macro demand shock could override this port-level signal.
Systematic signal · rule-based engine
Port Activity at Signal Time
14-day historyVessels
182
Anchored
2
Congestion
97/100
Shaded band = rolling 7-day avg ± 1σ · breaks outside band = anomaly territory
Permanent link to this signal
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