15d ago
Sabine Pass Congestion Elevated But Prices Already Falling
Congestion at Sabine Pass is a notable 1.8σ above baseline at 72/100, suggesting sustained LNG export demand, but LNG spot prices are down 6.5% on the day and NG futures have collapsed 16.6% intraday, indicating the physical demand signal is already being overwhelmed by bearish price action. The prior BULLISH signal 42h ago has not been rewarded by price movement, and my recent track record at this port (40% win rate, with high-confidence calls repeatedly wrong) warrants extreme caution. Prices appear to be leading the congestion data lower rather than vice versa.
Triggered By
Congestion score 72 is 1.8σ above same-hour baseline (avg 49)
Trade Idea
Wait for NG futures to stabilize above $7.50 before initiating any long on LNG equity; if congestion holds above 70 for 2+ consecutive polls AND NG stops making new daily lows, consider a small long LNG targeting a 3-5% recovery over 5-7 days. Do not chase FLEX given its anomalous +55% 1d move which likely reflects unrelated corporate event.
Affected Assets
LNG
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GLNG
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NG
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UNG
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⚠ A macro risk-off move or unexpected warm weather forecast revision could extend the NG selloff regardless of port congestion levels, as demand-side sentiment is currently dominating physical supply signals.
AI-generated signal · Claude Sonnet
Port Activity at Signal Time
14-day historyVessels
152
Anchored
5
Congestion
43/100
Shaded band = rolling 7-day avg ± 1σ · breaks outside band = anomaly territory
Permanent link to this signal
/signals/USSAB/2026-05-23T07:03:14.404Z